We’ve reached the halfway point of the year. Here’s what played out as expected, what surprised markets, and what FIs should be watching next.
Key Themes of 2026
AI
Whether as a force of disruption or a tool for productivity, Artificial Intelligence continues to dominate this year’s discourse, and expectations remain strong.
At the start of the year, Morgan Stanley projected that AI-driven productivity gains would account for about 20% of global growth. By May, the “AI 33,” the companies most directly tied to AI infrastructure and adoption, had generated approximately 78% of the S&P 500’s year-to-date return.
This growth is backed by continued infrastructure investment. AI hyperscalers remain committed to capital spending, while 65% of surveyed family offices report investing across the AI value chain.
What Wealth Managers Can Prepare For:
- Firms should assess whether current valuations remain justified, where enthusiasm may peak, and which parts of the AI ecosystem offer the strongest risk-adjusted opportunities.
Inflation
The U.S. May Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed the all-items index increased 4.2% over the previous 12 months before seasonal adjustment. Inflation continues to prove more persistent than many expected.
For investors, the challenge remains wealth erosion. As the traditional relationship between equities and bonds becomes less reliable, many investors are broadening portfolios through active management, goal-based allocations, and strategies such as liquid alternatives and relative value investing.
What Wealth Managers Can Prepare For:
- Monetary policy expectations continue to shift rapidly. This year alone, markets moved from expecting two U.S. rate cuts to discussing the possibility of further hikes. Portfolio construction increasingly requires flexibility for multiple economic outcomes.
Geopolitics
Geostrategic planning remains central in 2026. Markets have faced:
- Heightened tensions in the Middle East and energy security concerns
- Evolving trade policy affecting global supply chains
- Uncertainty surrounding semiconductor production
- The continued rise of domestic-first policy and regulatory fragmentation
Rather than driving wholesale portfolio changes, these developments have encouraged targeted adjustments. Nearly half of global investors plan to increase geographic diversification, with Europe (46%), Asia-Pacific (44%), and Emerging Asia (42%) leading allocations, compared with only 25% planning to increase U.S. exposure. Interest is also growing in defense, industrials, capital goods, and energy.
What Wealth Managers Can Prepare For:
- Resilience increasingly comes from governance and disciplined investment frameworks. Helping clients build structures that can withstand volatility may become just as valuable as identifying new opportunities.
IPOs
High-profile IPOs continue attracting attention in 2026, including SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. Their activity highlights two important themes.
First, enthusiasm for growth assets remains strong. Historically, large IPOs have coincided with optimistic, risk-on market environments. The question is whether today’s market can sustain renewed issuance after several quieter years.
Second, companies continue staying private longer. In the U.S., the number of private companies with more than 100 employees has grown by 46% over the past 30 years, while public companies have declined by 24%. Increasingly, businesses experience their highest-growth phase before reaching public markets.
What Wealth Managers Can Prepare For:
- The distinction between public and private markets continues to narrow. Portfolio construction should seek access to growth opportunities while maintaining liquidity, diversification, and valuation discipline.
Summary: The Adaptive Portfolio
Across these themes, one trend stands out: portfolio construction is becoming increasingly deliberate. Managers are expanding their search for value as uncertainty drives more active, targeted investment strategies.
The Invess Perspective: Execution
Looking ahead, one statistic captures the defining challenge for the remainder of 2026:
45% of wealthy clients plan to move 25%–50% of their assets.
Investors and family offices continue searching for better outcomes. While market conditions contribute to this shift, we believe it also reflects the growing gap between what clients expect and what is ultimately delivered. The real question is how firms translate client objectives into consistent execution.
That requires portfolio architecture, not just investment strategy. Firms with strong operational foundations will be better positioned now that client loyalty is increasingly fluid.
If you need help constructing that portfolio infrastructure, get in touch with us.